Prospects for Peace - A panel of experts
tells TIME what Hamas' victory in Palestine might bring
By DENNIS ROSS, MOISES NAIM, ABDUL SATTAR KASIM, ZIAD ABU AMR, RICHARD HAASS, DANIEL PIPES
DENNIS ROSS Former U.S. envoy to the Middle East Hamas is going to have to make choices
because they're going to need the outside world if they're going to deliver for the
Palestinians. No one should make it easier for them and let them off the hook.
International organizations and governments that want to get aid to the Palestinians
shouldn't deal with Hamas without exacting a commitment to peace. The Hamas win will
cement Israel's belief that there isn't a partner; the unilateral impulse will remain the
driving force in Israeli politics.
MOISES NAIM Editor in chief of Foreign Policy The optimistic view is that there is a
silver lining to Hamas' ascent to power: there is nothing more educational and
transformational than running a government in a poor country. The pessimistic view is that
this will be the last election in Palestine for a long time, that Hamas' win will not go
down in history as an example of the global march toward democracy but as another instance
of the "one person, one vote ... one time" syndrome. It is too soon to tell
which of these will be correct. The experiments in the Palestinian laboratory will yield
answers with global consequences.
ABDUL SATTAR KASIM Political scientist at An-Najah National University in Nablus
Palestinians want to see an end to the corruption and chaos that we have felt for the past
few years. There has been so much damage to the ethical and social fabric of our people
that it's going to take time to rebuild. But Hamas is not going to work to the timetable
of the international community--I mean Israel and the U.S. It has its own timetable and
priorities. At the same time, I hope Hamas will not cut all threads to past negotiations.
I hope they are reasonable and rational because they can achieve a lot if they really want
to.
ZIAD ABU AMR Gazan legislator and political scientist at Birzeit University Hamas have
been taken by surprise by this as much as anyone else. They expected a strong showing but
not this overwhelming victory. They tried to form a national-unity government, but Fatah
refused the offer. Now Hamas is on its own and figuring out how to handle things. Before
it deals with the question of Israel, it will play to its domestic strengths. That means
cleaning up corruption and building the social and welfare network it has run over a
number of decades.
RICHARD HAASS President of the Council on Foreign Relations It's important not to read too
much into this. Hamas did not campaign on the question of Israel. They won because they
stood for change, and they weren't associated with corruption. No matter who had won, the
only peace process for the foreseeable future was one of continued Israeli withdrawal. If
Ehud Olmert wins the upcoming election in Israel, the Israelis will make several
withdrawals from the West Bank and then say, "We'll only go beyond here if we have a
Palestinian partner." My sense is, no matter what happened last week, we'd have
several years of sorting out on the Palestinian side.
DANIEL PIPES Director of the Middle East Forum The Hamas victory will have the largest
impact not in relations with Israel, where its goals and those of its predecessor Fatah
resemble each other, but in two other arenas. Within the Palestinian Authority, Hamas will
run a very different show from the anarchic, corrupt, sloppy dictatorship bequeathed by
Yasser Arafat. Expect to see a far stricter, more religious, more disciplined order, with
Fatah members, including Mahmoud Abbas, sidelined and probably repressed.
Second, Arab Islamists have already achieved electoral success and takeover in Iraq, but
Hamas represents the first Arab Islamist terrorist group to be legitimated through the
ballot box. Comparable groups in countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and
Morocco will watch and be encouraged, should there be any show of acceptance of Hamas by
the U.S. and other governments.
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