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U.S. Against Israel Strike on Iran Nuke Facilities
Legions of senior American officials have
descended on Jerusalem recently, but the most important of them has been
Defense Secretary Robert Gates. His central objective was to dissuade Israel
from carrying out military strikes against Iran’s nuclear weapons
facilities. Under the guise of counseling “patience,” Mr. Gates again
conveyed President Barack Obama’s emphatic thumbs down on military force.
The public outcome of Mr. Gates’s visit appeared polite but inconclusive.
Yet Iran’s progress with nuclear weapons and air defenses means Israel’s
military option is declining over time. It will have to make a decision
soon, and it will be no surprise if Israel strikes by year’s end. Israel’s
choice could determine whether Iran obtains nuclear weapons in the
foreseeable future.
Mr. Obama’s approach to Tehran has been his “open hand,” yet his gesture has
not only been ignored by Iran but deemed irrelevant as the country looks
inward to resolve the aftermath of its fraudulent election. The hardliner
“winner” of that election, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was recently
forced to fire a deputy who once said something vaguely soothing about
Israel. Clearly, negotiations with the White House are not exactly topping
the Iranian agenda.
Beyond that, Mr. Obama’s negotiation strategy faces insuperable time
pressure. French President Nicolas Sarkozy proclaimed that Iran must
re-start negotiations with the West by September’s G-20 summit. But this
means little when, with each passing day, Iran’s nuclear and ballistic
missile laboratories, production facilities and military bases are all
churning. Israel is focused on these facts, not the illusion of “tough”
diplomacy.
Israel rejects another feature of Mr. Obama’s diplomatic stance. The
Israelis do not believe that progress with the Palestinians will facilitate
a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Though Mr. Gates and others have
pressed this fanciful analysis, Israel will not be moved.
Worse, Mr. Obama has no new strategic thinking on Iran. He vaguely promises
to offer the country the carrot of diplomacy—followed by an empty threat of
sanctions down the road if Iran does not comply with the U.S.’s requests.
This is precisely the European Union’s approach, which has failed for over
six years.
There’s no reason Iran would suddenly now bow to Mr. Obama’s diplomatic
efforts, especially after its embarrassing election in June. So with
diplomacy out the door, how will Iran be tamed?
Mr. Gates’ mission had extraordinary significance. Israel sees the political
and military landscape in a very inauspicious light. It also worries that,
once ensnared in negotiations, the Obama administration will find it very
hard to extricate itself. The Israelis are probably right. To prove the
success of his “open hand,” Mr. Obama will declare victory for “diplomacy”
even if it means little to no gains on Iran’s nuclear program.
Under the worst-case scenario, Iran will continue improving its nuclear
facilities and Mr. Obama will become the first U.S. president to tie the
issue of Israel’s nuclear capabilities into negotiations about Iran’s.
Israel understands that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent
commitment to extend the U.S. “defense umbrella” to Israel is not a
guarantee of nuclear retaliation, and that it is wholly insufficient to
deter Iran from obliterating Israel if it so decides. In fact, Mrs.
Clinton’s comment tacitly concedes that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons,
exactly the wrong message. Since Israel, like the U.S., is well aware its
missile defense system is imperfect, whatever Mr. Gates said about the
“defense umbrella” will be politely ignored.
Relations between the U.S. and Israel are more strained now than at any time
since the 1956 Suez Canal crisis. Mr. Gates’s message for Israel not to act
on Iran, and the U.S. pressure he brought to bear, highlight the weight of
Israel’s lonely burden.
Striking Iran’s nuclear program will not be precipitous or poorly thought
out. Israel’s attack, if it happens, will have followed enormously difficult
deliberation over terrible imponderables, and years of patiently waiting on
innumerable failed diplomatic efforts. Absent Israeli action, prepare for a
nuclear Iran.
Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the
author of “Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United
Nations” (Simon & Schuster, 2007)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203609204574316093622744808.html
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